Electricity Consumption Forecast for Tarkwa Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System

Abstract

Electricity has become one of the inelastic goods in our world today. The proper functioning of most equipment today relies on electricity. Taking Tarkwa which is a mining community into consideration, the various mines, schools, shops, banks and other companies in the municipality massively rely on electricity for their day to day running. Therefore, knowing the exact amount of electricity to produce and distribute for the smooth running of businesses and basic living is of great necessity. This study compared and formulated a model to forecast and predict the daily electrical energy consumption in Tarkwa for the year 2019. The data used was a monthly dataset for the year 2018 and it comprised of the temperature, wind speed, population and electricity consumption for Tarkwa. The methods used were Artificial Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). The ANFIS was used as a predictor to predict the electricity consumption based on the training and testing of the dependent and independent variables. The ARIMA was used to forecast the dependent and independent variables for 2019. These simulations were done using MATLAB and Minitab. The results of the analysis revealed that the training and testing dataset allowed ANFIS to learn and understand the system but the ANFIS could only forecast the 2019 electricity consumption after the input data to the system was changed to the ARIMA forecasted 2019 independent variables. It was observed that the amount of electricity consumed in 2019 increased by 14%.